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SEISMICITY:
BAE are world leaders in modelling of mining induced seismicity. By back analysing the relation between the Dissipated Plastic Energy and the probability of seismicity in a calibrated mine-scale non-linear model, the resulting relation can be used to compare the probability of large seismic events for proposed mine sequences. (Learn more by downloading one or our recent papers: Interpreting cave propagation using seismic event interpretation in caving mines and the decomposition of plastic strain © BAE 2006)
The relation between DPE and seismic event probability is very strong. Prediction efficacies greater than 60% have been achieved at some mines, and the DPE correlation properly replicates the Gutenberg Richter relation.
BAE’s analysis represents worlds best practice in the forecasting of mine seismicity.
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© BAE 2005 ACN 113083060 |
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Telephone: (+61) 8 9245 3287 Beck Arndt Engineering Pty Ltd 3 Nautilus Crescent WA Australia |
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FIGURE: The development of a seismogenic bridge between an advancing undercut and an open pit, modelled using a mine-scale non-linear Finite Element Model |
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FIGURE: A comparison of the relative occurrence of events at given magnitudes based on the observed Gutenberg Richter Relation, and the predicted by the long term mean prediction efficacy |
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FIGURE: The relation between DPE and event probability for a range of magnitudes at an example mine. Each data point represents a large number of seismic events. |
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